'08 in '06
***UPDATED***
The Wall Street Journal Opinion page talks today about what I'm saying here, that Obama might be better served if he waited and that Hillary might make his road to a 2008 Presidency difficult. I like how they say the same thing I'm saying, that I don't know that the American people will like how the last 5 presidency's have looked if Hillary runs: Bush Sr, Clinton, GW Bush, and then another Clinton?
Good to see I'm not the only person who thinks American politics needs some new blood.
I was asked over the weekend what I thought about the 2008 Presidential Race and speficially Barack Obama. My response was they are wasting their money on television ads in 2006. Why? Because Barack may be popular, and a great speaker (even I think he's enigmatic) but he's got a tougher road than just becoming popular with us little folk. This is American politics, and unfortunately the popular vote isn't all that it should be.
Problem #1 for Obama: he's new. He has no voting history to run on. Which in most cases is a positive thing. But he's a junior Senator in a Senate full of Presidential hopefuls. He has to make friends if he's going to get anything done for his state in the next two years. And making friends is exactly why everyone hates Senators in the first place.
Problem #2 for Obama: Hillary. Or more specifically, the Dem nomination. And this may be a bigger problem than #1. It's one thing that he's well liked by the populace, but he's got to fight for the nomination before he gets the general election. And Hillary is a powerful, powerful force. I'm thinking Hill is not going to take a back seat while a newcomer to the political arena dashes her hopes for complete world domination and socialized medicine.
Positive's for Obama? The people love him, and Democrats forgetting what the people want is what got them in the mess they were in prior to the 06 mid terms. So they are not likely to bite the hands that fed them so quickly.
The other thing is, a lot of analysts and political types are not sure Hillary can win. She is a polarizing figure. The left loves her, but the right and centerists tend to see her as an uber-liberal, and she's doesn't play well with a lot of soccer moms. And we don't discount the soccer mom vote. So the Dems make take a chance by voting for the first African-American President before the first woman President. Either one is a "first" I'd like to see, and if given the choice between those two, I'd choose Barack every day of the week and twice on Sunday.
And if he makes it to the general election, he stands an awesome chance of winning. But my thought is he won't make it to the general election. Hillary has so much political capitol and generates so much money, there's not a chance she'll let him slide in on his first attempt. So we'll see Barack in 2012. At which point he'll have been a Senator for two terms, and will be unelectable. (See Kennedy, Kerry, Edwards, McCain, etc. for examples.) He should have ran for Governor.
But the Dems side is all about Obama and Hillary. The rest of the field are non-starters. Kerry won't win because he didn't win against a very unpopular President his first time through. Edwards wont win because he's an ambulance chaser who made all his money off big tobacco law suits and who lost to an unpopular President his first time through. Gov. Vilasack from Iowa has no media support and no money. Joe Biden, someone I do like, is a lifetime Senator (he's never had a different job). Please see note above on Kennedy, Kerry, Edwards and McCain.
And let's not forget Al Gore. :) Nevermind. That's just too funny.
But the problem for 2008 is who the heck are the Reps going to run? I don't have someone I'd vote for in the whole bunch. And no one's talking about it. Which really isn't a bad thing since it's still 2006. But if you're looking at the field, here's who you've got.
John McCain. His own party hates him. He will have to run as an independent and he'll steal votes from the Dems. If he gets the Rep nomination I will be slightly amazed. And then I'll hope an Independent comes along.
Bill Frist. Same problem as Kennedy, Kerry, and so on. He's a Senator with very little name recognition who did not do a great job as Majority Leader. If he runs, I will be seriously, seriously upset. Want to know about that that's a different blog.
Mitt Romney. Host of problems for this guy. He's a New Englander. The center of this country doesn't take well to Eastern accents and big city attitudes. Ask Kerry. His other problems are no one knows who he is and he has bad hair. Which is as important as the fact that he's Mormon (read: unimportant), but it will be an issue.
George Allen. Senator from Virginia. I know nothing about this man. Neither does the rest of the country.
Jeb Bush. As a conservative, I would have loved to vote for Jeb. I would have loved it. Aside from the Schiavo thing, I like him. But as an American, I can not nor will I, vote for another Bush. This is not a monarchy, and there will never be another Bush president. So Jeb's out. His political career is over.
Elizabeth Dole. I don't know a lot about her. I know she's wildly respected. But that's about it. I think I'd rather see Lynn Chaney whom I believe to be brilliant. But that won't happen.
Newt Gingrich. Too many people remember when he was in the Senate and the tricks he pulled. It would be an ugly, ugly campaign.
Rudy Guiliani. America's mayor. I'm not sure if the party will nominate him. We'll see. He's kind of shady, but I like him. He could be, maybe, a strong a candidate.
Condi Rice. Not a snowballs chance. Which is sad. Because she's brilliant too and I love her back story.
Arnold S. Um ... far as I know this is illegal.
So you see, there are very few positives for the Reps to run. The best and most likely are McCain and Guiliani. But we'll see. 2008 is a long way off.
But those are my thoughts for 2008. Blame the people that asked me for this run on blog.
The Wall Street Journal Opinion page talks today about what I'm saying here, that Obama might be better served if he waited and that Hillary might make his road to a 2008 Presidency difficult. I like how they say the same thing I'm saying, that I don't know that the American people will like how the last 5 presidency's have looked if Hillary runs: Bush Sr, Clinton, GW Bush, and then another Clinton?
Good to see I'm not the only person who thinks American politics needs some new blood.
I was asked over the weekend what I thought about the 2008 Presidential Race and speficially Barack Obama. My response was they are wasting their money on television ads in 2006. Why? Because Barack may be popular, and a great speaker (even I think he's enigmatic) but he's got a tougher road than just becoming popular with us little folk. This is American politics, and unfortunately the popular vote isn't all that it should be.
Problem #1 for Obama: he's new. He has no voting history to run on. Which in most cases is a positive thing. But he's a junior Senator in a Senate full of Presidential hopefuls. He has to make friends if he's going to get anything done for his state in the next two years. And making friends is exactly why everyone hates Senators in the first place.
Problem #2 for Obama: Hillary. Or more specifically, the Dem nomination. And this may be a bigger problem than #1. It's one thing that he's well liked by the populace, but he's got to fight for the nomination before he gets the general election. And Hillary is a powerful, powerful force. I'm thinking Hill is not going to take a back seat while a newcomer to the political arena dashes her hopes for complete world domination and socialized medicine.
Positive's for Obama? The people love him, and Democrats forgetting what the people want is what got them in the mess they were in prior to the 06 mid terms. So they are not likely to bite the hands that fed them so quickly.
The other thing is, a lot of analysts and political types are not sure Hillary can win. She is a polarizing figure. The left loves her, but the right and centerists tend to see her as an uber-liberal, and she's doesn't play well with a lot of soccer moms. And we don't discount the soccer mom vote. So the Dems make take a chance by voting for the first African-American President before the first woman President. Either one is a "first" I'd like to see, and if given the choice between those two, I'd choose Barack every day of the week and twice on Sunday.
And if he makes it to the general election, he stands an awesome chance of winning. But my thought is he won't make it to the general election. Hillary has so much political capitol and generates so much money, there's not a chance she'll let him slide in on his first attempt. So we'll see Barack in 2012. At which point he'll have been a Senator for two terms, and will be unelectable. (See Kennedy, Kerry, Edwards, McCain, etc. for examples.) He should have ran for Governor.
But the Dems side is all about Obama and Hillary. The rest of the field are non-starters. Kerry won't win because he didn't win against a very unpopular President his first time through. Edwards wont win because he's an ambulance chaser who made all his money off big tobacco law suits and who lost to an unpopular President his first time through. Gov. Vilasack from Iowa has no media support and no money. Joe Biden, someone I do like, is a lifetime Senator (he's never had a different job). Please see note above on Kennedy, Kerry, Edwards and McCain.
And let's not forget Al Gore. :) Nevermind. That's just too funny.
But the problem for 2008 is who the heck are the Reps going to run? I don't have someone I'd vote for in the whole bunch. And no one's talking about it. Which really isn't a bad thing since it's still 2006. But if you're looking at the field, here's who you've got.
John McCain. His own party hates him. He will have to run as an independent and he'll steal votes from the Dems. If he gets the Rep nomination I will be slightly amazed. And then I'll hope an Independent comes along.
Bill Frist. Same problem as Kennedy, Kerry, and so on. He's a Senator with very little name recognition who did not do a great job as Majority Leader. If he runs, I will be seriously, seriously upset. Want to know about that that's a different blog.
Mitt Romney. Host of problems for this guy. He's a New Englander. The center of this country doesn't take well to Eastern accents and big city attitudes. Ask Kerry. His other problems are no one knows who he is and he has bad hair. Which is as important as the fact that he's Mormon (read: unimportant), but it will be an issue.
George Allen. Senator from Virginia. I know nothing about this man. Neither does the rest of the country.
Jeb Bush. As a conservative, I would have loved to vote for Jeb. I would have loved it. Aside from the Schiavo thing, I like him. But as an American, I can not nor will I, vote for another Bush. This is not a monarchy, and there will never be another Bush president. So Jeb's out. His political career is over.
Elizabeth Dole. I don't know a lot about her. I know she's wildly respected. But that's about it. I think I'd rather see Lynn Chaney whom I believe to be brilliant. But that won't happen.
Newt Gingrich. Too many people remember when he was in the Senate and the tricks he pulled. It would be an ugly, ugly campaign.
Rudy Guiliani. America's mayor. I'm not sure if the party will nominate him. We'll see. He's kind of shady, but I like him. He could be, maybe, a strong a candidate.
Condi Rice. Not a snowballs chance. Which is sad. Because she's brilliant too and I love her back story.
Arnold S. Um ... far as I know this is illegal.
So you see, there are very few positives for the Reps to run. The best and most likely are McCain and Guiliani. But we'll see. 2008 is a long way off.
But those are my thoughts for 2008. Blame the people that asked me for this run on blog.
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